The Snowflake Problem: Why Energy Efficiency Projects Are So Damned Hard To Finance

As we all learned in kindergarten, every snowflake is unique.  Now, studies have shown that is not entirely true (see here if you are marginally interested in the science of snowflakes), but close enough. 

Uniqueness may be good for snowflakes, but lousy for financial transactions. At least part of the problem in harnessing private capital to fund energy efficiency projects is the lack of standardization across projects.   Major financial institutions need big pipelines of medium- to large- deals to make the sector worthwhile.  If each transaction is significantly different, it means that underwriting standards, loan documents, due diligence and so forth have to be created from scratch for each transaction.

The solution to the snowflake problem is to standardize the transactions.  It is very tricky with energy efficiency, because each building has different features--age, system types, use, occupants, etc.  Therefore, the technology needed to create the efficiencies also differ. 

To break through the logjam, someone needs to develop one or more reliable algorithms that can be used to evaluate projects quickly, while still respecting the unique features of different projects.  Transactions could be structured around the standardized model, and then tweaked for the particulars of the transaction.  Without a reliable and replicable structure for financing energy efficiency deals, financing will always be limited and expensive.   

Progress on the Green Appraisal Front--Appraisal Institute Issues Green Appraisal Form

On September 29, 2011, the Appraisal Institute issued a Green/Energy Efficiency Addendum to its standard Fannie Mae Form 1004.  The form has sections for including energy efficient appliances, water savings, energy audit results, energy bills and more.  It can be downloaded here

According to the release by the Appraisal Institute, Form 1004 is "the appraisal industry’s most widely used form for mortgage lending purposes. Used by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration, Form 1004 is completed by appraisers to uphold safe and sound lending. Currently, the contributory value of a home’s green features is rarely part of the equation.

One notable omission is a specific reference to LEED certification.  It includes Energy Star, but not LEED, although there is space for listing "other"  certification. 

This kind of standard form for valuing green features gives specific guidance for appraisers on what to look for and include in the audit.  How the information translates into valuation remains to be seen, but it is an excellent step in the right direction.

Energy Efficiency Policy After ARRA--Access to Capital is Not Enough

My loyal readers may have been surprised (or relieved) by my hiatus from publishing.  I was not idle, however.  I led a study on Energy Efficiency Policy in New Jersey and Pennsylvania on behalf of the Department of Energy-funded Greater Philadelphia Innovation Cluster for Energy Efficient Buildings.  I completed the work last week, and it will be released soon. 

I have also been advising New Jersey Governor Chris Christie on developing the 2011 Energy Master Plan for New Jersey.  The draft plan is available here.  The findings of the eight-person work group on clean energy will be made public shortly, and public hearing is being held on October 21 from 9:30-12:30 at the Rutgers Eco-Complex.  Details are available here

My public sector work has given me some new insights into green building and energy efficiency policy, which will be developed in further posts over the next few months. 

Among the most interesting findings is the difficulty in crafting public policy initiatives to break through the “efficiency gap”—the gap between a customer’s actual investments in energy efficiency and those that appear to be in the consumer’s best interest.

Most policy efforts are aimed at eliminating the "first cost" barrier to energy efficiency.  In other words, providing grants or loans to minimize the upfront investment required for energy efficient systems.  

Making these programs work to achieve scale and realize significant energy savings has proven devilishly difficult.    With the influx of ARRA funds, state and local jurisdictions have invested $650 million in loan programs for energy efficiency projects, with loans generally provided to customers at low- or zero- interest rates. 

The author of a May 2010 nationwide study of state, utility and municipal loan programs by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory concluded:

Despite the advantages of state, utility and municipal loan programs, participation to date has been modest, and they appear to be incapable of driving a large scale transition to a clean energy future by themselves.

A study just released in September, 2011 by the ACEEE which reviewed 24 financing programs nationwide concluded that participation rates were generally low across programs, and do not generally track energy savings.  The report concluded:

While several programs have many years of experience and have issued thousands of loans, this market has yet to come to scale. 

So, it is clear that transforming the energy efficiency environment will require more than providing low cost capital from government sources for at least two reasons.  First, because government capital and capital deployment mechanisms are not robust enough to create scale, and second, because the barriers to energy efficiency are not merely financial.  Psychological barriers, cultural barriers, resource barriers and technical barriers also play important roles.  [This report nicely summarizes the various barriers to energy efficiency investment by sector.]

From my research, policymakers must focus on better stimulating private capital deployment and integrating financing with tools to address other barriers to energy efficiency. Understanding consumer motivation, providing resources to address the less concrete barriers to energy efficiency, and partnering with private capital sources to bring financing to scale  should be the goals of energy efficiency policies going forward.